Regional Climate Change Projection Development and Interpretation for Indonesia

IPCC global climate change projections for Indonesia at mid-century and the end of the century for the high emission scenario are available but there is limited ability to use this information on a regional scale as the information provided is too coarse. In addition, some countries do not have the ability to “downscale” this information for their own regional purposes to capture the effects of smaller scale influences such as topography and land use.  This project addresses these issues through regional climate modelling over Indonesia.

What did the project do?

This project provided:

  • country-scale information for Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines based on 60km downscaled results from six IPCC Fourth Assessment climate simulations
  • expert targeted training for Indonesian scientists, enabling them to run regional climate models (provided to them by CSIRO) to supply additional climate data on a regional scale, and helping them to build the expertise required to interpret this data
  • an additional training course to enable Indonesian scientists to identify the implications of climate scenarios and develop appropriate country-based responses including targeted responses to extreme events such as monsoons, rainfall changes, temperature changes and typhoons.

What did the project produce?

  • Downscaled model output at 60 km resolution over Indonesia for six global climate models (GCMs) for the periods 1971-2000 (current climate), 2041-2060 (mid-century) and 2081-2100 (the end of the century) for the A2 (high) emission scenario
  • A report on results from analysis of the downscaled model output for Indonesia, carried out in conjunction with two visiting scientists
  • A report on the final workshop, where further training took place.

How can the project make a difference to development?

This activity provided BMKG (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics) staff from Indonesia with datasets and skills to assess possible future impacts of climate change over Indonesia.  In addition, with multiple IPCC models being downscaled, some of the uncertainty of the future climate was captured. The regional scale climate change information generated for this project will aid impact assessment and allow more effective adaptation and mitigation planning in this developing country so that limited resources can be targeted to achieve the best outcomes. The project was a continuation of established engagement between Indonesian scientists and CSIRO, which will strengthen ties and led to continuing collaboration that will develop new techniques to apply to the challenges of climate change.


Regional Climate Change Simulation and Training Workshop on Climate Change Over Eastern Indonesia and Vietnam, 2010