Elisabeth Vogel

Dr. Elisabeth Vogel is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the UNSW Water Research Centre. Her research focuses on past and future changes in climate and hydrological extremes and downstream impacts, such as on food production and water resources, with a particular focus on the impacts of compound events.

Innovation title:

Using machine learning to support adaptation in the agricultural sector in Australia

Abstract:

Australia’s climate is highly variable both in space and time and characterised by hydro-climate extremes, such as droughts and heatwaves. Such extremes are projected to become more frequent and/or severe under climate change. Agricultural production is particularly affected by hydro-climatic extremes which can have devastating effects on crop yields and livestock health. To ensure sustainable food production and agricultural water management in Australia into the future, it is critical to understand how climate variability and extremes have influenced agricultural outputs in the past.

In our study we quantified the impact of hydro-climatic variability and extremes on historical agricultural production in Australia by applying Random Forest models to sub-national agricultural statistics and high-resolution, continental-scale climate and hydrological data. Focusing on wheat and barley – two of Australia’s major export crops – our models explain approximately 50% of the interannual variability in yields across the country, and up to 75% of the yield variability at the regional level. We identify key hydro-climatic drivers, highlighting the dominant role of water availability in determining wheat and barley yields.

Our results identify drought impacts as highest priority for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector and emphasise the need to better understand changes in drought under future climate. In addition, our research may support the development of climate support services, such as seasonal forecasts of hydro-climatic risk indicators for agriculture, to aid agricultural decision-making in Australia.