Rajitha Athukorala

Rajitha Athukorala is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the ARC Center for Data Analytics for Resources and Environment (DARE) at the University of Sydney. His research focus is on interpretable probabilistic machine learning methods in hydrology

Innovation title:

When Rivers Shift and Waters Rise: Modelling Non-Stationary Flows in a Changing Climate for Australia

Abstract: 

Water is arguably the most impacted natural resource by climate change, and predicting streamflow in Australia is particularly challenging due to the rapid transitions (fluctuations?) between low and high flows and the high variability overall. As the title suggests, “When Rivers Shift and Waters Rise” – this talk will provide two ways of addressing the obstacles of both “river shifts” and “rising waters.” 

The first solution for “rising waters” is a Bayesian Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (BHME) model, developed to forecast stream levels in Australia while accurately quantifying uncertainties. This data-driven model will aid decision-makers track changes in runoff generation processes over time, enabling informed decisions for the sustainable management of Australian water resources.  

To address the “river shifts,” I will highlight my new method for estimating time-varying stage-discharge relationships. Adaptive Streamflow Rating Curve Estimation (AdaptRatin) has the capability to track shifts in the stage-discharge relationship over time and deliver accurate estimates for each period, whether stationary or non-stationary, representing a crucial contribution to understanding and managing the evolving hydrological systems impacted by climate change.